I-OPEC ebhekene namafutha aphezulu kakhulu ilungiselela isikhathi sokuwa kwesidingo!

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I-cartel yabakhiqizi baka-oyela kuthiwa balindele ukuncishiswa okuphelele kwesidingo samafutha ngemuva kombhadane we-coronavirus.

Inhlupheko ye-coronavirus kungenzeka ukuthi yabangela indawo ekudala ilindelwe yokufuna uwoyela, futhi igxila ezingqondweni zabakhiqizi abakhulu nabathengisi bobuhlalu emhlabeni.

Lo bhubhane wehlise ukusetshenziswa okungafanele kwansuku zonke kungafika kwesithathu ekuqaleni konyaka, ngesikhathi lapho ukwenyuka kwezimoto zikagesi nokushintshela emithonjeni yamandla esivuselelekayo bekuvele kuholele ekubuyekezweni okuphansi kwesimo sezulu ukufuna isikhathi eside kawoyela.

Lokhu kugqugquzele ezinye izikhulu e-Organisation of the Petroleum Exportingazwe (OPEC), isiphakamiso samafutha anamandla kakhulu selokhu yasungulwa eminyakeni engama-60 eyedlule, ukungabaza ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla omnotho kulo nyaka kudinga ukusishintsha ngokuphelele. nokuthi ungaphatha kanjani kangcono izimpahla uma usuphelile unyaka wamafutha.

"Abantu bavuka iqiniso elisha futhi bazama ukusebenza amakhanda abo kukho konke lokho," kusho umthombo wezimboni osondelene ne-OPEC, etshela abezindaba zeReuters ukuthi "kungenzeka ukuthi kukhona ngokuzayo. 'umoya wabo bonke abadlali abamqoka' lokho ukusetshenziswa akunakulunga ngokuphelele.

AbakwaReuters baxoxisane nezikhulu eziyisikhombisa zamanje nezaphambilini noma eminye imithombo ebandakanyeka kwi-OPEC, iningi labo elicele ukungadalulwa. Bathe le nkinga yakulo nyaka, ebithinte uwoyela ngaphansi kwe- $ 16 umphongolo, igqugquzele i-OPEC namalungu ayo ayi-13 ukuthi babuze imibono esekuphele isikhathi eside ngamathemba wokukhula kwesidingo. .

Eminyakeni engu-12 eyedlule, OPEC ithi ibigcwele imfucumfucu lapho uwoyela uphakama ngaphezulu kwe- $ 145 umphongolo njengoba inani labantu lenyuka.

Manje kubhekene nezinguquko ezinkulu uma ukusetshenziswa kuqala ukwehla unomphela. Iqembu kuzofanele liphathe ukubambisana kwalo nabanye abakhiqizi, njengeRussia, ukusondela kakhulu ekwandiseni ukwehla kwemali engenayo futhi kuzofanele lisebenze ukuze ubudlelwano phakathi kweqembu bungaphazanyiswa inkuthazo yokuvikela isabelo semakethe. emsebenzini wenkontileka.

"Umsebenzi we-OPEC uzoba nzima kakhulu ngokuzayo ngenxa yokwehla kwesidingo kanye nokwenyuka kokukhiqizwa okungeyona ye-OPEC," kusho uHasan Qabazard, umqondisi wokucwaninga we-OPEC ka-2006. kuya ku-2013, omsebenzi wakhe manje ufaka ukweluleka imali yengozi kanye namabhange okutshala imali kwinqubomgomo ye-OPEC.

Isikhulu, esisebenza ezifundweni zamandla emnyangweni wephethiloli welungu elikhulu le-OPEC, sithe ukushaqeka kwesidingo sikawoyela esikhathini esidlule kuholele ekushintsheni okungapheli kokuziphatha kwabathengi. Uthe kulokhu ngeke kwehluke.

"Izidingo azibuyeli emazingeni obunzima bangaphambi kwenkinga, noma kuthatha isikhathi ukuthi lokhu kwenzeke," kusho yena. “Okukhathaza kakhulu ukuthi isibalo samafutha sizokonyuka eminyakeni embalwa ezayo ngenxa yokuthuthuka kwezobuchwepheshe, ikakhulukazi emabhethri ezimoto. "

Ngo-2019, umhlaba wadla imiphongolo eyizigidi ezingama-99,7 ngosuku (b / d) - kwathi i-OPEC yaqikelela ukuthi izokwenyuka zibe yizigidi ezingama-101 b / d ngonyaka ka-2020.

Kepha ukuvala umhlaba okwenziwe kulo nyaka, okuthe izindiza zaxosha imigwaqo, kwaholela ekutheni i-OPEC yehlise inani lama-2020 laya ku-91 million bpd, njengoba imfuno ka-2021 isengaphansi kwamazinga ka-2019.

Qagela inani eliphakeme

Amazwe akhiqiza, abahlaziyi bezamandla kanye nezinkampani zika-oyile kudala bezama ukuthola ukuthi umhlaba uzofinyelela nini “uwoyela ophakeme,” iphuzu lapho ukusetshenziswa sekuqala ukuncipha ngokuphelele. Kepha izimfuno zikhule ngokuqinile njalo ngonyaka, ngaphandle kokuphikisana nokubuyela emuva kokuwohloka komnotho.

Noma kunjalo, i-OPEC yehlise okulindelwe. Ngo-2007, wabikezela ngesidingo somhlaba wonke sokufinyelela ezigidini eziyi-118 b / d ngonyaka ka-2030. Ngonyaka owedlule, isibikezelo sakhe sonyaka we-2030 sase sehle saya ku-108,3 wezigidi b / d. Umbiko wawo kaNovemba kulindeleke ukuthi ukhombise okunye ukubuyekeza okuphansi, kusho umthombo we-OPEC.

Ishadi Le-oyela Elingafanelekile YaseBrent Refinitiv

Iziphathimandla ze-OPEC zenqabile ukuphawula kwabakwaReuters ngokubheka kwayo noma inqubomgomo yale ndatshana. Kepha izikhulu zithi umlando ukhombisa amandla we-OPEC wokuzivumelanisa nezinguquko ezimakethe.

Ukuqagela kokusetshenziswa kuyahluka ngaphandle kwe-OPEC. Izinkampani zika-Oyili zehlise ukubonwa kwamanani entengo engapheli yesikhathi eside njengoba umbono wokudingeka kwezidingo uyaphela, wehlise inani lentengo yempahla yabo.

Izilinganiso ze-Global consulting firm DNV GL zifuna ukuthi zanda ngo-2019.

Isabelo samaphesenti kawoyela ekuxubeni kwamandla kagesi sehle ngokuqinile emashumini eminyaka adlule, sisuka kuma-40% wamandla asetshenziswa ngonyaka we-1994 aya kuma-33% ngonyaka ka-2019, njengoba inani lamavolumu asetshenzisiwe lenyuka nezimoto eziningi. emigwaqweni, ukukhuphuka kwezokuhamba komoya kanye nomkhakha we-petrochemical owenza amapulasitiki amaningi neminye imikhiqizo.

Lokho manje sekungashintsha, njengoba izimoto zikagesi eziningi ziphuma emafektri nezindiza zilwa kanzima ukuthola lo bhubhane. I-International Air Transport Association (IATA) ayilindelanga ukuthi ukuhamba komoya kufinyelele emazingeni angama-2019 kuze kube ngu-2023 - ekuqaleni.

"Uma izindiza ziphinde zaphela ngonyaka ka-2023, izidingo zizobuyela kokujwayelekile - ngaphandle komqhudelwano ovela kweminye imithombo yamandla," kusho isikhulu se-OPEC sesibili esibambe iqhaza kulesi sehlakalo. ukugqamisa ubunzima bokwenza izibikezelo kumongo womkhuba womhlaba wonke wokusebenzisa amandla avuselelekayo. kanye namanye amafutha.

Lokhu kushiya i-OPEC inselelo enkulu kakhulu. Iningi laleli qembu, elithembele kuma-80% wemithombo yamafutha efakazelwe emhlabeni, lithembela kakhulu ekungagcinini. Izintengo zika-Oyili, manje ezisehla ngaphezulu kwama- $ 40, zisezingeni eliphansi kakhulu kunohulumeni abaningi okudingeka balinganise isabelozimali zabo, kufaka nomholi we-OPEC de facto Saudi Arabia .

'Ukucekelwa phansi kwaphakade kwesidingo'

U-OPEC, omkhiqizo wakhe okhiqiza cishe ingxenye yesithathu yezinto zokuthenga zomhlaba, akumangazi ngezigameko. Wasingatha ukushaqeka kokuhlinzeka ngesikhathi sokuxabana kweGulf ngeminyaka yama-1980s, 1990s, kanye ne-2000s futhi wathola izindlela zokubhekana nezimo lapho abakhiqizi abancintisana nabangewona u-OPEC bevula ompompi, njengomkhakha wamafutha we-shale. e-United States eminyakeni eyishumi edlule.

Umhlangano we-OPEC

Muva nje, lapho isimo se-coronavirus sidingida isidingo, i-OPEC kanye neRussia kanye nezinye izimbangi, i-Consortium eyaziwa ngokuthi i-OPEC +, bavumelane ngo-Ephreli ukuqopha ukusikeka kokwenza izinto ngo-9,7, 10 million bpd, noma okulingana no-XNUMX% wokuhlinzekwa komhlaba. Lokhu kuncipha okujulile kugcina kuze kuphele uJulayi.

Kodwa-ke okuza ngokulandelayo kuthembisa olunye uvivinyo lwesibindi se-OPEC. Esikhundleni sokubhekana nokushaqeka nge-one-off, i-OPEC kumele ifunde ukuhlala ngokuncipha kwesikhathi eside.

"Lo mkhuba uzogcizelela ukubambisana phakathi kwamalungu e-OPEC, kanye naphakathi kwe-OPEC neRussia, njengoba ngamunye elwela ukugcina amasheya awo emakethe," kusho uKudib Khelil, ungqongqoshe wase-Algeria uwoyela iminyaka eyishumi kanye noMongameli we-OPEC kabili.

Ezinye izinselelo zesikhashana zingabangelwa yi-OPEC njengoba i-Iran neVenezuela, zombili ezithintwa yizijeziso zase-US, zifuna ukukhulisa umkhiqizo noma ukukhiqizwa kuphinde kubekhona eLibya ebhuqiwe yizimpi.

Abanye bangaqhamuka ngaphandle, njengoba iqembu lizama ukuvimba ukukhiqizwa kwama-shale e-United States ekuthatheni isabelo sezimakethe ngenkathi i-OPEC ifuna ukusika umkhiqizo emizameni yayo yokuxhasa amanani.

"Ziningi izingqinamba eziseza futhi kufanele sizijwayeze," kusho isithunywa se-OPEC, esithe ukusingathwa kweqembu ngezinkinga ezedlule sekubonakalise ukuthi lingakwazi ukuphendula.

Lowo owake waba ngumqondisi wokucwaninga we-OPEC uQabazard uthe iqembu lingaba nesikhathi esengeziwe sokulungisa ngaphambi kokufuna ukuphakama. Kodwa uthe umnqamulajuqu wokuguqulwa kwezimo ze-OPEC ususondele.

"Angicabangi ukuthi kuzodlula imiphongolo eyizigidi eziyi-110 ngosuku ngonyaka ka-2040," esho, engeza ukuthi ukuqubuka kobhadane lwe-coronavirus sekushintshe izindlela zokuphuza zizinhle.

“Ukucekelwa phansi kwesidingo ngokuphelele. "

umthombo: https: //www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/peak-oil-finally-opec-prepares-age-falling-demand-200728064859370.html

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